What are the Odds?

Odds are most people have bandied around terms like “three-to-one” or “20 per cent chance of…” but no matter how they are expressed they all relate to the relationship of an exchange. That exchange could be the probability of something happening against a given event or the return a player can expect against a given bet.

These are subtle but closely related definitions. But they often leave those new to casino odds wondering how do odds work? Whilst they may seem a bit daunting for those new to betting, the differences predominantly derive from the different areas of the world where they are most commonly used and constant scouring of the internet for the best odds casino games.

The three main different types of odds in used are Fractional, Decimal and Moneyline which are reflective of the British, European and American systems respectively. As a starting point, understanding these systems can help players work out how to determine the best casino game odds.

Decimal odds are something seen more on the European continent. Also known as digital or European odds, the system is used in Canada, Australia and New Zealand. More straight forward to understand that fractional odds, they simply reflect the bookmaker’s offer plus the stake bet.

In the UK and Ireland Fractional Odds are the reigning system used on race courses and betting shops alike. They are also known as British Odds and may be written to appear like a fraction or ratio such as 20/1; 20:1 or 20-1. Learners should note that these are not strictly fractions, something we shall discuss later, but can be useful when explaining the other systems when someone asks “what are the odds?”

Finally we come to Moneyline odds. These are predominantly used in the USA and are perhaps the most arbitrary system of the three. Here all odds are expressed in relation to $100 either as a stake or as the amount won.

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How Do Odds Work?

What are the odds of understanding Fractional Odds? Quite high really as they are possibly the easiest of the formats to work as they are based on a division sum.

This means that 4/1 odds are equivalent to 4 divided by 1, meaning the bettor could win $4 for every $1 they bet. Similarly, odds at 2/5 would return $0.4 for every $1 bid.

Players should always to remember that they also get their original stake returned on top of the pay-out. So the total winnings from a $10 at 2/5 odds would see a player collect $14 in total.

Decimal odds do the hard work for anyone approaching the bookmaker. Expressed simply as the total return a bettor could collect from the house against $1.

Moneyline odds which are normally put in context of betting or winning a Benjamin, sometimes quaintly referred to as $100.

A Moneyline odd of “+300” would be the equivalent of receiving $300 for every $100 bet. In fractional odds this would be the equivalent of writing 3/1 or using decimal notation, 3.

To express a net win of $25, the Moneyline system would show “-400” which represents the amount needed to win a net pay-out of $100. Whilst not intuitive, the equivalent in fractional odds of ¼ or in decimal odds, 1.25.

Slots Odds

Slot machines come in many different flavours whether it is based on the number of reels, typically 3 or 5, or the number of symbols on each reel. Coupled with the various eligible combinations that will effect a win this makes them come of the most challenging casino odds to work out.

Thankfully both online and offline slot machines come with their very own paytable that gives the player the information they need before sitting down to play.

Paytable

The paytable is a simple guide to show the winning combinations available to the player. They also show how much a player stands to win based on betting a given amount. This is usually listed in the form of a ratio.

RNGs and Payouts

The RNG, or Random Number Generator, is a piece of testable software that is constantly picking random numbers so, irrespective of tactics; amounts bet; or previous lines, each result is independent of any other factor other than the moment at which the spin button is pressed. This reliability and consistency across the industry helps players understand which game to choose when looking for the best odds casino game.

The RTP or “Return to Player” is the amount a player can expect to win when playing a given game over a long period of time. This is often listed alongside the payline on the paytable. For example, a RTP of 95% would mean that for every $1 a player spends, they can expect to eventually recover 95 cents. The RTP is something that is influenced more by the casino rules and can aid a player when assessing which are the best casino game odds.

Blackjack Odds

Understanding blackjack and the statistical likelihood of winning would, if all things were equal be a relatively simple equation. However, whilst there are things to consider such as the House edge and the varying forms of the game, a few principles ring true when understanding the odds at blackjack.

The House Edge in Blackjack is simply due to the player drawing first. Consequently when the player and the dealer both overshoot 21, the player will always be the loser. The chances of going bust is 28%. Combined with the house edge this equates to the dealer having roughly an 8% advantage.

Players should also make use of the myriad odds tables available online that demonstrate the chances of going bust dependent on the value of the cards already in hand. Perhaps unsurprisingly if a player holds 12 there is a 31% chance that their next draw will bust their hand, whilst a player with 20 has a 92% chance of going bust.

Roulette Odds

The odds available in roulette will depend on whether the game is based on European or American rules. In both games bets may be placed either as an “Outside” or an “Inside Bets”

Outside Bets

These are simply bets that will cover nearly large sections of the table at any one time. They may consist of “Even Money” bets which consist of betting on groups such as Black or Red, Odds or Evens, and bets on numbers 1-18 or 19-36. The important thing to remember here is that they do not cover the 0 or 00 squares and this reduces the odds of winning to under 50%. Pay-out is set at 1:1.

The other type of Outside Bet are the Dozen or Column which cover nearly one third of the table, again excluding 0 an 00. Probability of winning is pitted at just above 30% and as a result the potential pay-out is 2:1.

Inside Bets

Inside Bets are where specific combinations or single numbers are chosen. For single numbers, the pay-out is the highest available at 35:1. This has the lowest probability of wining at less than 3%.

Other combinations, such as the Split; the Street; the Corner; the Basket and the Double Street, all of which represent increasing numbers of squares being covered. As the probability of winning increases the pay-out decreases, with a Double Street having a 16.22% chance of success whilst only returning odds of 5:1.

Baccarat Odds

Baccarat is perhaps the most subject to chance rather than skill. Based on making one of three choices: The Banker winning; the player winning or a tie, Baccarat is usually most suited to high rollers.

Whilst the house edge is probably one of the lowest, the probability winning whether betting either on a player or banker win are just below 46%. This is similar to playing Even Money in Roulette.

Betting on a tie only offers a 9.53% chance of success but the 9:1 return odds are attractive to players. Safer bets on the player or banker command return odds of 5:4 and 6:5 respectively.

One thing to consider when calculating the potential winnings in baccarat is the house edge and whether or not a commission is paid. Ordinarily there is a 5% commission charged for bets on the banker, which effectively bring down the return on the bet with the highest probability of winning.

Poker Odds

Poker Odds may seem to be some of the most complex casino odds too due to the large combinations of hands. The combination of knowing the value of winning hands and the likelihood of drawing a particular card offers the player a statistical advantage when it comes time to place bets against their hand.

Those cards that are available to a player and can contribute to their hand are known as “outs”. The number of “outs” can in part be determined by looking at what is in the players hand and which cards are on the flop. So for example if it is known that there are two clubs in the hand and two more on the flop, a single player can determine that there are nine outs available in the deck as this will account for all 13 cards in the suit.

A single available out can have a 1 in 46 chance of being the next card drawn whilst there is a 1 in 1.7 chance of drawing one of 17 available outs. Knowing these details can help a player decide when to discard a hand or hold out for a stronger hand?

An added difficulty comes when there are other players in the game. Not knowing which cards they are holding does mean that any assumptions on the available outs remain tied to the number of cards held by the opponent/s. The usual rule of thumb is to treat the odds as if there are no other players.

Craps Odds

Unlike the other games mentioned, Craps uses two six sided dice which leads many to ask the question how do odds work in Craps?  The odds of rolling a particular number in Craps are based on the number of combinations available to make that number from the dice.

For example, there are two ways in which to roll a three with two dice in a Craps game. Either a one and two; or a two and one.

As there are thirty-six combinations of numbers that two dice can make this presents a 2 in 36, or 1 in 18, chance of rolling a three. This can also be expressed as odds of 17 to 1 against.

Whilst these odds represent the true probability of winning a particular score, casinos normally offer pay-out odds that are slightly less favourable which provides the house with a the edge over each game.

There are a few ways to improve the odds of winning at Craps such as “Pass Line”, “Come Bet”, “Taking the Odds” and “Don’t Pass Line” bets. These can offer opportunities to reduce the house edge and increase the available winning combinations.

With “Pass the Line” betting, the player simply needs to score either a 7 or 11 to win even money. Whilst scoring a 2, 3 or 12 will mean the player loses, any other number will afford the player a second chance to role a win.

To make matters more interesting, “Taking the Odds” can be invoked when the player initially fails to score either a win or a loss after choosing to play Pass the Line. When they role any other number it is known as “The Point” and they may then choose to make an additional bet on rolling a Point number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) before rolling a 7.

These odds are usually displayed on the Craps table and pay-outs and mean the casino odds are a reflection of the true odds for each number with the casino having no edge over the player – a rare find in any game.

Best Casino Game Odds

So the question remains where you will find the best casino game odds. Above all, the best odds by far may be found at the table.

Roulette comes in at third place. It is easy to understand and players can either take a bit of a risk for a high return by choosing specific numbers, or take a safer and more incrementally successful road by betting on Reds or Blacks. The latter offering a near 50-50 chance of winning.

The second best odds may be found at Craps table. Here again, the odds approach 50-50. Whilst the house edge can vary dependant on the rules of the casino, choosing to bet by taking the Odds often levels the players advantage to an even money win.

As with Roulette, skill level is at a minimum and chance is the guide, so remaining calm and not doing anything rash should offer a reasonable chance of return.

Finally, perhaps the best odds by far may be found at the Blackjack table. Here, the player, whether experienced or a novice simply has to beat the dealer by not going over 21. The statistical chances of going bust are calculable and the rest is down to judgement and a little bit of luck.

For some players, Blackjack can be a little more engaging simply because they are able to influence the outcome, even if it is by a relatively small degree. This not only makes it the best odds casino game, but also a bit more fun.

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27/07/2020
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